Warning Finance(trading) Post

I like numbers and amongst my many hobbies, I dabble in stock trading and put money where my mouth is so when I recommend long or short, that means I am. Of note I don't have an official license to practice advisement so if you listen to me its at your own risk, cackling not included.

So there are two movements I've recently moved into, one being antimony, via UAMY, and the second trying to figure out Apple (AAPL). Now antimony works if you have a portfolio willing to take a risk, but I wanted to talk about apple. Specifically what is the board thinking by paying a dividend and pursuing a massive stock buyback campaign, and that's what I wanted to throw out there.

The Chart below is apple's stock for the the past 3 years. As you can see clearly, it's been up. There have been varying trends, but still it's been up. Recently though the slope has drastically increased. I mean between December and this past week, Apple is up $200, or 50% in just under four months.

That trend is entirely unsustainable. Mainly because of reality, in stock world with algorithmic trending, yes it could continue, but if you take into account the idea that a consumer goods company is worth more than an industrial manufacturer or a diversified R&D company...you run into some issues. The problem is Apple has continued to succeed, and has a pile of cash thanks to Steve Jobs and his drive to innovate vice the drive to return money to the stockholders.

This week that changed, yes Apple has gobs of money on hand, and by gobs, I mean gobs. This past week they decided to issue the first dividend since 1997, when Jobs pulled the dividend in order to fix the company by reinvesting internally, which saved the company and brought them to their current state. This worked, b/c apple reinvested internally and led the back with breakthrough products.

Now, they went back to financial games, dividends and share buybacks, and released the iPad 3 with an HD screen, and the same battery technology that's in a 15 year old iPod. To handle the HD screen, the battery size was increased, technology wasn't improved, but the size was increased. Anyone with an engineering degree or even most script kiddies in High School can tell you higher power usage means more heat, so this wasn't an unexpected problem. The news says Heatgate is overblown but its symptomatic, especially when you consider they just issued a stock buyback, and for probably the first time released a subsequent generation of a product that wasn't a big jump.

That's the crux of my short argument. I don't see what Apple is gaining by releasing a dividend. The amount of money they're spending on a stock buyback, could easily solve that little heat issue and what would that do? Make Apple stay ahead of the competition. Or how about reinvesting the cash into the SIRI database so that the next generation of Apple products is 100% voice responsive, but no they paid some shareholders a meager dividend 2.65(qtr)/610 when it could've been reinvested and made the stock price cross $1,000, instead Apple is getting into the financial games which killed the company before Steve came back and saved it. Just my 2 cents and i plan on shorting them in the near future, fairly heavily b/c I don't believe the current board is capable of running a cutting edge consumer products company...too many crappy MBA's there.

Sotterly Ride

Nice quick 18 miler with some side trips we wandered off on, but a good ride, nice scenery, pretty flat. So good warm up for the season
http://www.gmap-pedometer.com/?r=5365808

Irish Car Bomb Cake

Sorry y'all this one turned out way tooo well to share the recipe to the world.
But if you're brave
-take the guinness cake recipe from fuckyeahbeer use real chocolate, bake 45 min
-cream cheese frosting with bailey's
-soak the cake in jameson before serving

delicious

Boxty

So I tried to make boxty..and while not a complete failure, wasn't my best effort. The recipe I found made it wayyy to thick and wasn't very pancake like but, it was a start. So on to the recipe, with notes for how to make it better
Note: Make sure you have some mashed potatoes around, if not..well this recipe takes a while.
Ingredients:

• 1.5 cups shredded potatoes
• 1 cup mashed potatoes
•  1 cup flour( I used whole wheat for the first try, next time will be less and almond)
• 1 egg
• 1 tablespoon milk
• dash of olive oil
• 1 tablespoon chopped chives
• 1 tablespoon chopped parsley
• 1 teaspoon basil

Mix the dry goods in a big ole bowl(i cheated and used a kitchen Ade b/c I'm lazy) mix the wet goods, stir them up and then add to the dry goods. Continue to mix until everything is mixed well.


For stuffing, I sauteed some shrimp, crab, peppers and onions in a side skillet

Heat a griddle, spoon on enough to make a pancake and set to cook about 3-4 min on one side, flip and cook for 3-4 more minutes...and wha-la boxty is done, without filling. For a filling I'd use half as much of the boxty mix, and when i spooned it out, i would add a little filling on top, then put the second spoonful on top of the mix before i flip...and it seemed to work.


Errors

• It was way to thick, I'm going to cut the flour in half for starters. so 1/2 cup instead.
• Second is to use more milk, or olive oil. Some more liquidity in the mixture would work well too b/c the batter didn't flow well.

Next recipe's up

St Patty's day had two recipe's we tried here...which will be posted once I get some feedback
1) Irish Car Bomb cake
2) Steak and Crab Boxty

We shall see..but time for a run before some beer for my belly

Route's a million - Wildewood edition

Found one that looks to be the new old faithful. It's an easy 3.2 mile run, with some small elevation changes..but there's plenty of space and a nice dirt hill about the 1 mile mark off to the left that provides some fun and excitement....lots of it if you like hill sprints in dirt(which i do)
So anyone in the Wildewood neighborhood in Md can use it, or stop on in and we'll do a few miles
http://www.gmap-pedometer.com/?r=5351722

Crab Stuffed Ravioli - Attempt

Before starting this recipe, find a bottle of red wine.
Open it
Liberally use wine on the cook throughout the process.

So this is the recipe I tried the other day for crab ravioli. It's a two part recipe, one for the pasta then another for the filling.
Part 1 - Pasta 

• 1/2 cup semolina
• 1/2 cup almond flour
• 1/2 cup flour
• dash of salt
• dash of sugar
• 2 eggs

Put the dry goods into a bowl, and mix thoroughly. Create a small indentation in the center and crack the two eggs into the center. I used a small fork at first, then my hands to thoroughly knead the mixture together, thoroughly. When you think you're done kneading, knead for another minute. Roll into a 'log' then stick in the fridge for at least 30 minutes. I usually let it sit there for 1-2 hrs.
I would have used more almond flour, but my last attempt with 100% almond flour created epic difficulties when trying to feed the pasta roller, so I backed off to make sure it had enough regular flour to bond the mixture.


Part 2 - Filling

• 6 ounces of crabmeat - chopped
• 1/4 red onion - finely chopped
• 1/4 red pepper - finely chopped
• 2 cloves of garlic, bug uns - finely chopped
• 1 tblspn of butter
• 2 teaspoons of capers, drained
• 1/4 teaspoon shredded lemon peel
• 1 teaspoon of basil
•  1 teaspoon of crushed pine nuts(can skip)
• 1/4 cup shredded parm/reggiano cheese

Add everything(but the parm/regg) to a skillet and sautee for 5-10 until everything looks like its been cooked down. If you don't know what cooked down means, think soft onions. Then add the cheese and let sit for a few minutes. 

If you like a creamier filling, use some ricotta cheese after everything has been cooked down and mix thoroughly.

 

Putting it together

I used a kitchenAid pasta roller, first rolling down on a 1 setting, and stepping down to a 4. With higher almond flour concentrations I have found its harder to get a smooth sheet, but keep at it, and use regular flour as needed to make sure everything sticks together. After rolling the flat sheets(you should get 4 good sized ones), lay two flat on a board, spoon(or use your hands) a quantity in the center, cover...and pinch tight..very tight. 

 

Whala-ravioli...  plus or minus a step or two

Issues:

I had issues with the almond flour and the dough not sticking together...also the filling cooked down a little differently than normal and was a little dry so I recommend using some olive oil.